The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated at highs, with tin prices supported by macro tailwinds, tight supply, and low inventory, forming a solid bottom. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

As of midday close on November 26, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract 2601 settled at 295,810 yuan/mt, up 420 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day. Intraday prices fluctuated rangebound between 293,770 and 297,500 yuan, with futures showing a pattern of fluctuation at highs. Although the night session saw LME tin close up 0.72% at $37,695/mt, influenced by rising expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, active market trading was clearly under pressure, reflecting intensified battles between bulls and bears at current levels.

From a macro perspective, signals from US Fed Governor Waller turned dovish, strengthening market expectations for a December interest rate cut, and a weakening US dollar index opened a pricing window for commodities. Domestically, policies acted in sync, with the central bank maintaining loose liquidity via MLF tools, coupled with eight departments jointly promoting policies for emerging industries like integrated circuits, indirectly boosting expectations for tin's downstream consumption. However, the market is currently in a data vacuum period; while macro sentiment is warm, transmission to real demand still requires time, leaving tin prices lacking breakthrough drivers in the short term.

Short term, tin prices have a solid floor supported by macro tailwinds, tight supply, and low inventory, but insufficient demand-side absorption limits the rebound's height. In the afternoon, attention should focus on whether LME tin can hold above the $37,600 level and whether domestic policy expectations can further boost market risk appetite. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the afternoon, with a projected range of 293,000-297,000 yuan.